Confirmation bias is the tendency to continuously find reasons to believe what you want to be true, no matter what argument or evidence is presented to contradict that desire. We all do it from time to time. But it can be particularly rampant in college admissions.
I’ve met families who spent their student’s entire high school career searching for a magic formula for admission to an Ivy League school.
I’ve met parents who insisted on forwarding letters of recommendation from multiple alumni who barely knew the student.
I’ve met students who insisted on applying to 20 highly-selective colleges (and nowhere else).
That’s college admission confirmation bias. It doesn’t matter to them that everyone from counselors to the admissions officers themselves will say that there is no magic formula. It doesn’t matter if the application instructions specifically ask for one letter of rec and that it be from a teacher. It doesn’t matter that both data and unassailable math prove that applying to 20 highly-selective schools is most likely to lead to 20 notices of bad news. They want a formula to exist that they can follow. They want the letters to boost their student’s chances. They want more applications to improve the chances that one will hit home. And they’ll cling to anything from outliers to unsubstantiated rumor to support those desires.
For counselors trying to guide these families, confirmation bias is inherently tough to crack. You’ll never eliminate it entirely for some people. But one way to get them to at least consider a different course of action is to ask,
“If what you want to happen doesn’t happen, will you wish you’d done something differently?’
It won’t work for every family every time, and it likely won’t change their fundamental desire that they’re working so hard to believe is actually true.
But it might convince them not to spend thousands of dollars on the summer program the student doesn’t actually want to attend. It might convince them to ask the alum if her letters have actually been successful for other applicants. It might convince them to apply to at least a couple schools where their chances of admission are stronger.
You likely won’t convince them to want different things. But you might be able to convince them to make better, and less risky, choices in pursuit of those desires.